There should be no kidding, a team carrying four of their top six don’t deserve to win the Ashes.

Australia have been handicapped by losing reliable opener Simon Katich, replaced by Phil Hughes, a man who has a worse technique than most tail-enders. Not that his unique method has stopped him scoring runs against top-quality attacks before, but he isn’t the type of batsman who is going to come in half-way through a series and fill his team-mates with confidence, especially when he was already in bad form. To compound his problems, he gave his wicket to Tim Bresnan today, a bowler who I refuse to acknowledge as test match standard.

Luck also wasn’t with Australia when Ricky Ponting passed his fitness test. The guy can’t score a run, and for the sake of the team, it would have been better if Usman Khawaja was given his debut in place of the captain. Ponting has been unfortunate with strangles down the leg-side, twice, but the fact is he has gone three and a half matches without a meaningful score; inevitability at his age questions will be asked, and rightly so. If there’s no score of substance by the end of the series, his time should be up, although captaincy and the World Cup complicates matters.

The mention of captaincy leads nicely on to the next of Australia’s batting failures, Micheal Clarke. For a man tipped to take over from Ponting, he isn’t exactly inspiring at the moment. His strength is against spinners, but this has been a seamers series, and his weakness outside off has been exposed again.

You can’t help but feel a tad sorry for Australia’s number six, Steven Smith. He’s a number eight at best, but he’s not the first Australian in recent times to be misused. Haddin could have swapped places with him, though teams seem reluctant to change batting orders these days.

Even in an area such as tail-end batting, Australia are a shadow of their former-self.

All this means England are within grasp of regaining the urn, which is something that seems catastrophic currently for Australia but it should be seen as a chance to get rid off the dead wood and reshuffle the batting line-up.

When Michael Hussey and Brad Haddin were effortlessly building Australia’s first innings lead during the afternoon session of the third day, they were not only transforming the shape of the match, but also swaying the minds of those who had predicted an England Ashes win.

With a 200+ run advantage on a supposedly wearing Gabba pitch many believed an Australian win was a foregone conclusion; it was time, for some, to revise their preconceived opinions of the series.

The suspicion, momentarily, was that Australia had been unfairly written-off considering their formidable home record, while England had been overhyped, wins over Pakistan and Bangladesh merely papering over the cracks of an attack who struggles away from home and a batting line-up who are far too liable to a collapse.

Even I, who, after months of thinking Australia would shade it, ultimately plumped for a 2-2 draw, was questioning whether I’d been sucked in by pre-Ashes English optimism.

But then, England’s now imposing top three dramatically readdressed the balance on day four, before racking up a video game score and truly humiliating Australia on the final day.

517-1. It was an extraordinary comeback.

By day five everything was hunky dory in the England camp, as if their first innings failures with bat and ball had been erased from the memory. England had not only reestablished their pre-series standing but also if anything boosted their reputation.

Such was the turn around, the general consensus is that England have the momentum and will take a big psychological advantage into the second test.

However, a quick recap from the last Ashes series shows that momentum counted for little when these two sides met. Australia dominated the first test, only one wicket away from victory, but went 1-0 down next game after Andrew Flintoff inspired England to a historic victory at Lord’s. The fourth Test in 2009 Australia thrashed England at Headingley; nevertheless, the home side bounced back to reclaim the Ashes at the Oval.

What the last Ashes shows is that the previous game had very little impact on the next game. This is often the case when two evenly matched sides, like Australia and England, are facing each other.

Momentum is a fickle little thing.

When Aleem Dar raised his finger the Australian team, crowd and commentators went ape; but the celebrations had to be halted as Broad predictably called for a review. Unsurprisingly the decision was upheld.

Dar gave Broad his marching orders for a second time, and the cheers and back-slapping resumed, albeit without the same vigour as the first time.

Undoubtably the time waiting for the confirmation of the dismissal took the edge away from the moment.

The commentary, usually adding to the drama on such occasions, was spoilt, too. Mark Taylor, I presume, fell off his chair in excitement while shouting at the top of his voice ”Peter Siddle’s got a hat-trick on his birthday!”. It was shaping up to be a classic piece of commentary. But then Mark Nicholas intervened.

For all the positives of UDRS – and it has had a good match so far - situations like this make me wish for the old days, when the umpire’s decision was final.

I was going to write some boring piece about how the Ashes was going to save cricket in the face of dodgy Pakistanis and flat subcontinent pitches but I thought someone would have already reiterated the importance of the Ashes to cricket, and they would have done it better than I could ever do. So, I thought I get to the point and hammer out five predictions for the series.

Alastair Cook will score only 1 century in the series

For the last couple of years now Cook has always done just enough to keep his place in the team. He will start the series poorly and everyone will scrutinize his technique, saying his balance at the crease is all wrong. Then half-way through a series, with his place in the team under severe pressure, he will come up with that all-important hundred. And with his place in the team then secure, his form will fade away again towards the end of the series. This sequence has occurred in the last three proper series (sorry Bangladesh) England have played – a worrying trend that I think will continue.

James Anderson to average over 40.00 with the ball in the series

A lot has been said about Anderson being the key man for England, but in fact I think he is a weak link who can be exploited in Australian conditions. Bowling in English conditions he is a world-class operator; away from home though, he becomes just another bowler – his stats back this up (43.84 runs per wicket abroad). While he has undoubtably improved in recent years with reserve swing steadily becoming another component to his armoury, I don’t foresee reserve swing playing a decisive part in the series, hence Anderson struggling with the old ball. Whether he will do as bad as averaging over 40 per wicket is questionable but the point is that I believe he will have a poor series.

Ben Hilfenhaus to be leading wicket-taker

He was a surprise starter – and star – in the last Ashes, but since then he had cemented his place in the team and evolved into Australia’s most reliable bowler. Always keeping it tight, Hilfenhaus has to be one of the best at setting a batsmen up - bowling a few out-swingers before surprising the batter with a quick in-swinger is a typical mode of dismissal for the Tasmanian. As opposed to Anderson, Hilfenhaus, when little is happening, won’t go around the park.

Strauss to be leading run-scorer

For some time the side’s most consistent batsmen, Strauss has overtaken Kevin Pietersen, in my view, as the most valuable English wicket for the opposition. Barring a dramatic form dip, Strauss should once again prove himself as his side’s leading batsmen

Series result: 2-2

I have literally spent hours agonising over predicting the final score. At the end of the day I can’t see either team winning, so I’ve plumped for some fence-sitting by going for a 2-2 draw with England retaining the Ashes. Despite this I can’t quite envisage there being as many as 4 result matches and as few as 2 result matches in the series. Confused? So am I. Basically, it will be a tight series…

After Australia’s defeat in the first test against India I was a tad surprised by the reaction from the media. I was expecting the Aussies to receive a lot of praise for being one more twitch of Billy Bowden’s crooked finger away from victory over the number one test team in the world – all this away from home. But instead the English cricket media came out of their winter hibernation, eager to fire in one or two digs at Australia’s expense.

Here’s a tweet from John Etheridge of The Sun:

“Two lessons from the thrilling finish – we must have the UDRS in every Test and Australia really are a moderate team these days.”

Point taken on the UDRS, John, but saying that Australia are a moderate team is a bit harsh bearing in mind they were so close to an unexpected victory.

I suppose that’s why I was surprised by the reaction: Ricky Ponting’s team were underdogs going into this series in the first place.

The Australian media was more scathing while talking up England’s chances of Ashes retention.

“The Australians have lost their fear factor … Meanwhile, England’s Ashes squad is sleeping soundly,” said some hack from the Herald Sun.

The Aussies losing their fear factor – i.e. aura, i.e. invinciblity – is not new knowledge. Ever since India ended Australia’s winning streak at Perth in early 2008, most test teams have suddenly fancied themselves against the baggy greens.

Basically, what I’ve been trying to say is that the real shock was Australia even getting close in Mohali. Australia are only a good side now; good sides who fall one wicket short of beating India in India deserve some credit.

Don’t deny it, Aamir and Asif are spot-fixers. 

Mazhar Majeed, the match-fixing leader, said the day before the Test exactly when the no-balls were going to occur. Aamer and Asif didn’t let him down. This is evidence enough that there was cheating going on.

Aamer is unbelievably stupid.

And so is the other 6 (?) corrupt cricketers - but Aamer is the one who is sticking in my head. He has completed wrecked his highly promising career. He is only 18 years old, for god’s sake. He was supposed to be the next big icon in cricket, the fast bowling superstar of the next decade. If he had continued his phenomenal rise as a cricketer, he would have earned millions in the years to come through sponsorship deals and IPL contracts. But he has messed all that up for dirty money in a betting scam.

Ban them all.

Anyone who is found to be involved in this should never be allowed to play any international or club again. They have battered cricket’s reputation and don’t deserve another chance.

Weren’t they thinking of the people back home?

I’m not usually into all the sentimental stuff, but come on, 20 million Pakistanis are affected by these floods and this is how they go about bringing some cheer to their countrymen. Brainless.

It happened at Lord’s.

Every Saturday during this series Sky have told the story of the rise of limited-overs cricket. When it came to discussing match-fixing in Sharjah, most people who were interviewed mentioned it was no surprise there were dodgy goings on at that venue. Sharjah was separated from the cricketing world, easy for match-fixers to make contact with players. But the latest incident that has taken place on the hallowed turf of Lord’s, the home of cricket.

Other revelations also saddening.

It’s not only spot-fixing going on, but also the more serious offence of match-fixing, according to Majeed anyway. While these claims can’t be so blatantly proven as they have been with the no-balls, you have to believe they are true. The ‘extraordinary’ Sydney Test – and, to be honest, pretty much any cricket Pakistan have played in the last whenever – has been tainted. How will Nathan Hauritz feel, knowing some of his wickets in Australia’s comeback were in all likelihood given to him by Pakistan?

Pakistan cricket is fucked up

• When discussing ODI captain Shahid Afridi, Majeed said:  “A lot of the boys want to f*** up Afridi because he’s trying to f*** up things for them.
• Most of their players are uneducated with poor families and thus are vulnerable to match-fixers.
• Every Pakistani no-ball or wide will raise questions from now on. 

The tour can’t continue.

If the News of the World didn’t step in, Pakistan were going to deliberately lose two of these match (allegedly).

Plenty of problems ahead – here’s one, prehaps minor issue in the grand scheme of thing. 

If they don’t play the ODIs and T20s, this will cause all sorts of monetary problems. The ECB will want the PCB to pay the millions they would lose if these matches don’t go ahead. But the PCB, I think, don’t have such money. 

I can’t believe they will even finish the Test later today.

Can you imagine what will happen when Mohammad Asif and Mohammad Aamer come out to bat? Can you imagine the remarks the MCC members will make as these two fixers make their way to the crease? Can you imagine Micheal Atherton asking Salman Butt “what went wrong this Test?” at the post-match presentation?

There is so much more to say but I need to get some sleep before the day’s play. It will be an interesting, if uncomfortable day.

I’m also wondering how they came to change their decision? Did they turn on the tv, see Mike Atherton call it an “utter disgrace”, and think “shit, we forgot Swanny. Must put him in”.

At least the right thing has happened and Swann’s been nominated now, but it is quite worrying that a five-man panel and the ICC have basically failed to recognize one of the star international cricketers. You wouldn’t imagine FIFA overlooking Lionel Messi for an award, would you?

In the qualification period (24th August 2009 to 10th August 2010), Swann played 10 Tests, taking 49 wickets at an excellent 27.55 runs per wicket, as well as averaging a useful 21.92 with the bat. Of course Swann - who is at least a nominee for the Test player of the year award - isn’t just a one format player. In 21 ODIs, he averaged 23.28 with the ball, and he has picked up plenty of wickets (16 at 14.37) in T20 internationals. Furthermore, he is a World Cup winner and England’s Cricketer of the year. If you add all this together, it seems amazing that he won’t be in the top 3, let alone the top 16.

One player, Ryan Harris, simply shouldn’t be in the 16. Harris has had a dream year, but he’s only played in two Tests and 3 International T20s. Surely, for this particular award, you need to regularly feature in a minimum 2 out of the 3 formats to be considered.

Apart from Harris, the rest of the candidates all look worthy of a nomination, though a bit of common sense should have seen Graeme Swann in the long list.

Another mystery is there being no Eoin Morgan in the ODI player of the year award. He averaged above 43 in 25 matches with 2 hundreds, and has been credited for playing a large role in changing England’s one-day fortunes. Morgan’s consolation is a nomination for the Emerging player of the year award.

As I have watched virtually every England match in the qualification period, it is understandable that I have pointed to Swann’s and Morgan’s cases; but I’m sure there are fans who feel a sense of injustice about someone else not being nominated when they should have been.

One final point: No Hamid Hassan in the Associate and Affiliate player of the year nominations!? What’s that all about? A glaring omission.

Earlier in the day, the BCCI issued a statement calling for strict action. I wonder how this affected the decision.

But, really, banning one of your young players who has been in international cricket for less than a year? Most, if not all boards would have backed their player to the hilt and attempted to play down the incident.

Look at England’s management after Stuart Broad threw a ball at Pakistan wicket-keeper Zulqarnain Haider. They had a quiet word with him in private, I’m sure, but in public they were fully behind him. Now Sri Lanka Cricket, by suspending Randiv, has rejected one of their bright prospects, simply because he upset India by bowling a no-ball.

This incident should have ended when Randiv apologised to Sehwag. But it has dragged on thanks to Sri Lanka Cricket and the Indian media, and now Randiv has paid an unfortunate penalty.

Now, was what Randiv did in the spirit of the game? Well, of course it’s not. He deliberately stopped a batsman from getting a hundred – not the nicest thing to have been done on a cricket field. Still, I don’t blame Randiv. Why would anyone simply let a batsmen get to a century? If slipping in a no-ball, a wide, a bye or anything else that prevents a batsman reaching a landmark when the match is practically over, why not do so. And what if it was captain Kumar Sangakkara giving the orders for this move? So what, it is not like Sehwag won’t get to three figures again.

I heard Sehwag say that Sri Lanka have done a thing like this before, one time bowling wides to stop Sachin Tendulkar from getting to yet another 100. Maybe Sri Lanka have been doing this undetected for years? I quiet like the thought of this. One match it happened accidentally, perhaps, and since then it has been a tactic they have enjoyed doing, seeing for how long they can do it without getting caught.

If that is the case (probably not, but it would be cool if it was true), they have been found out now, pretty much red-handed. But the main reason I decided to blog about this incident is because of the fierce reaction it has provoked.

That Sri Lankan Cricket feels the need to apologise and look into the incident further is surprising – until you remember who they apologised to. If it had been any other team than India, would they have said sorry? You wouldn’t think so. But the truth is they would never want to do anything to upset the BCCI. They need to have good relations with them for regular games, and regular dosh.

As for Indian fans complaining about Sri Lanka playing against the spirit of the game, you would hope they’d realise that India don’t always play fair. I can recall Sehwag kicking the ball to the boundary to stop Hashim Amla from retaining the strike early this year. That’s surely not in the spirit of the game.

The current incident, as it usually is when it involves India and its media, has been blown out of all proportion. No-one should be banned, and everyone should get on with the series.